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Study warns that governments, not technology, hold the key to keeping 1.5C global warming target alive

“Study Suggests Some Governments’ Climate Policies Could Push World Beyond Paris Agreement Limit”

A new study published in Nature Climate Change suggests that the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels may no longer be achievable due to the constraints of implementing climate policies in some countries. Lead author Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland and guest researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, states that even with moderate likelihood, limiting peak temperature to below 1.5°C is no longer possible.

The study conducted by Bertram and his colleagues utilized various models that considered factors such as effective policymaking and regulation. The most ambitious climate mitigation projections give the world a 50% chance of limiting global warming below 1.6°C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, when realistic constraints like governments’ capacity to implement policies such as carbon taxes are taken into account, the likelihood drops to between 5 and 45%.

Bertram emphasizes that the main obstacle holding back progress in combating climate change is policy, not technology. While there has been a significant increase in the deployment of low-carbon technologies like solar, wind, and electric vehicles, the lack of ambitious climate targets and proportionate policies from governments is hindering further progress. Some countries lack the infrastructure and bureaucratic systems necessary to effectively enforce policies like carbon pricing, which limits their ability to decarbonize rapidly.

The study highlights the importance of international support to increase institutional capacities and make the deployment of clean technologies cheaper and easier for countries with lower incomes. Even limiting warming to 1.6°C will require significant political will from higher-income countries. The European Union, for example, needs to accelerate its green transition and show more ambition in sectors like transport, buildings, and industry.

By being a leader in technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, the EU can help drive down costs and make it easier for other countries to adopt these technologies. Additionally, building out institutions that support faster decarbonization efforts globally is crucial. The study underscores the need for urgent action and collaboration on a global scale to address the challenges posed by climate change and work towards a more sustainable future.

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