Understanding Systemic Risk of Climate Change: Insights from Craig McIntosh, Professor of Economics at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy

Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue – it’s a national security threat that requires urgent attention from policymakers and disaster relief agencies. In a recent study conducted by researchers at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, a statistical approach was developed to help identify areas most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and guide decision-making on building resilience.

Professor Craig McIntosh, one of the study’s coauthors, emphasized the importance of understanding the systemic risk posed by climate change. He highlighted how the technique developed in the study can be applied globally to help populations assess their vulnerability, anticipate economic impacts, and prioritize resilience-building efforts.

For example, governments in the Western Pacific region could use this approach to make informed decisions on purchasing extra food during El Niño years when crop productivity is affected. This same technique could be utilized by governments worldwide to assess their climate conditions and determine the most effective institutions to address them.

The research also has significant implications for the development of the loss and damage fund established by the United Nations in 2022. This fund aims to support developing nations that have been disproportionately impacted by climate-related disasters. By using the statistical approach developed in the study, countries can identify where investments in resilience will yield the highest returns and where international reinsurance may be necessary.

Coauthor Krislert Samphantharak, also a professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, emphasized the potential of the technique to guide countries in making strategic decisions to mitigate climate risks and enhance resilience.

The study, titled “Empirical Modeling of Agricultural Climate Risk,” was a collaborative effort involving researchers from UC San Diego and the Universidade Estadual de Campinas in Brazil. It underscores the importance of interdisciplinary research in addressing the complex challenges posed by climate change.

To learn more about the groundbreaking research and education initiatives at UC San Diego, visit the Climate Change website. Stay informed, stay engaged, and join the global effort to combat climate change.