“Timber Crisis Looms as Climate Change Shifts Cropland Northward, Study Warns”
The world is facing a timber crisis as climate change pushes cropland further north, according to a new study conducted by Cambridge University scientists. The study warns that global warming will move and reduce the land suitable for growing food and timber, putting the production of both vital resources into direct competition.
The researchers found that if no action is taken to combat climate change, a quarter of the world’s forestry land – equivalent to the size of India – will become more suitable for agriculture by the end of the century. This shift is already evident in the UK, where hotter summers have created conditions suitable for growing grapes, leading to an increase in vineyards.
The study highlights the emerging issue of increasing competition between land for timber and food production due to climate change. Under the worst-case scenario, where no action is taken to decarbonize society, more than a quarter of existing forestry land – around 320 million hectares – will become more suitable for agriculture by 2100.
Most forests for timber production are currently located in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the US, Canada, China, and Russia. The study predicts that 90% of all current forestry land that will become agriculturally productive by 2100 will be in these four countries. In particular, Russia is expected to see tens of millions of hectares of timber-producing land become newly suitable for agriculture, with conditions favorable for potato, soy, and wheat farming.
The researchers emphasize the importance of planning ahead, as the trees that will be logged by the end of the century are already in the ground and have much slower growth cycles than food crops. Global food demand is projected to double by 2050, as the population grows and becomes more affluent, while global wood demand is also expected to double in the same timeframe.
Shifting timber production deeper into boreal or tropical forests is not a viable option, as logging these untouched areas would release large amounts of carbon and threaten biodiversity. The researchers stress the importance of preventing further expansion into these areas, which are the epicenters of remaining global wilderness and biodiversity hotspots.
Climate change is already causing challenges for timber production, with heatwaves, wildfires, and pests like the Bark Beetle causing significant losses in timber forests around the world. The researchers urge the development of strategies to ensure both food and wood security into the future, as wood is just as integrated into our daily lives as food.