“Batten Down the Hatches: NOAA Predicts Record-Breaking Hurricane Season Ahead”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an extremely active hurricane season for 2024, with the greatest number of named storms since forecasts began in 1998. NOAA expects between 17 to 25 named storms, including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes of category 3, 4, or 5 strength. This forecast is well above the average season, which typically features 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The forecast is based on several factors, including near-record sea surface temperatures that are as warm as they normally are in August. NOAA also anticipates a quick transition to La Niña conditions, which could decrease wind shear and lead to more powerful storms. Additionally, an above-normal African monsoon is expected to produce African easterly waves that can seed strong and long-lived storms.
Other forecasters, such as those at Colorado State University and the University of Pennsylvania, have also predicted an active hurricane season. Colorado State University forecasters expect 23 named storms, while the University of Pennsylvania predicts 33 named storms. The most named storms ever recorded in a single hurricane season was 30 in 2020.
Experts attribute the increased hurricane activity to warmer sea surface temperatures, weaker trade winds, and fewer plumes of Saharan dust blowing across the Atlantic. While hurricane forecasting has improved, it remains difficult to predict where the storms might track, emphasizing the importance of being prepared for any scenario.
The sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are currently tracking hotter than in previous years, with temperatures in the Main Development Region averaging 82.5 degrees Fahrenheit. This is significantly higher than the normal average temperature of 78.5 degrees Fahrenheit for this time of year. Experts are closely monitoring these conditions and urging residents in hurricane-prone areas to prepare for a potentially devastating season.
Overall, the 2024 hurricane season is expected to be hyper-active, with a high likelihood of major hurricanes striking the U.S. and the Caribbean. The unprecedented forecast serves as a reminder of the importance of being vigilant and prepared in the face of extreme weather events.