Navigating Uncertainty: Understanding the Complex Relationship Between Sea Level Rise and Migration

Sea level rise is a pressing issue that has the potential to displace millions of people from their homes by the end of the century. The alarming estimates of the number of people who may be affected by rising seas have sparked concerns about a potential refugee crisis like no other. However, the reality of how sea level rise will impact migration patterns is far more complex than a simple flight response.

A review of 33 different studies on the subject reveals deep uncertainty surrounding the number of people who will be exposed to rising seas and how they will respond. While it is clear that rising seas will have significant consequences, predicting how individuals will react is nearly impossible. People living in vulnerable low-lying areas may choose to stay and protect their homes rather than move away. Factors such as emotional, social, and financial pressures play a significant role in the decision to stay or leave.

The focus on those who may be forced to migrate due to climate change often overlooks the plight of “trapped” populations who are unable to leave their homes. These populations may be just as vulnerable, if not more so, than those who are on the move. More research is needed to understand the realities of staying put for those who choose to stay and those who are unable to leave.

Global estimates of those likely to be affected by sea level rise are useful for drawing attention to the potential scale of future impacts. However, local insights are necessary to make the picture clearer for different areas. Understanding how sea level rise interacts with other environmental changes and developing measures to prevent or reduce inundation are crucial steps that must be taken now.

It is important to dispel myths around climate change triggering mass migration across borders and instead focus on helping vulnerable populations. Reproducing xenophobic and colonial power relations based on unfounded arguments only creates unnecessary fear and hostility towards migrant populations. By addressing the complexities of sea level rise and migration, we can work towards creating a more sustainable and inclusive future for all.