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The Influence of Climate Change on the Migration and Displacement Patterns of Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh (May 2024)

“Climate Change and Rohingya Displacement: A Call to Action for Sustainable Solutions”

In the disaster-prone Asia-Pacific region, particularly in South Asia, the frequency and intensity of environmental hazards, exacerbated by climate change, pose significant risks. Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, with floods being the primary driver, recorded the highest number of disaster displacements in 2022. Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, hosting about a million Rohingya refugees, faces escalating climate-related threats, impacting camp life, safety during irregular movement, and prospects for return to Myanmar. While initial displacement from Myanmar was driven by persecution and conflicts, the dire conditions in refugee camps are increasingly influenced by climate factors, potentially contributing to onward movements to neighbouring countries like India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.

The emerging impact of climate change on the displacement and migration dynamics of Rohingya is increasingly relevant. Climate change introduces additional layers of challenges to the already dire situation of the Rohingya, particularly in Bangladesh and neighbouring countries, where they seek refuge. Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar are vulnerable to extreme weather events, with urgent climate mitigation and disaster preparedness measures needed to mitigate risks such as cyclones and landslides. Displaced populations like the Rohingya are particularly susceptible to secondary displacement due to settling in hazard-prone areas, exacerbating the risk of climate-related movement on a larger scale. The combination of food insecurity, violence, lack of livelihoods, and dwindling hope for durable solutions has led to a surge in irregular maritime movement of Rohingya across the region in recent months.

Though conflict remains the primary driver of Rohingya displacement, climate and environmental factors along with the deteriorating conditions in the camps significantly exacerbate migration risks, particularly during perilous sea journeys. In 2023, a staggering 13% of Rohingya perished or went missing during such journeys. Within refugee camps, climate-induced hazards such as floods and cyclones pose additional threats, leading to internal displacement and necessitating proactive evacuation strategies. Moreover, involuntary immobility stemming from restricted mobility rights and lack of livelihood opportunities in Bangladesh compounds vulnerabilities, especially during climate-related disasters. The controversial relocation of Rohingya to Bhasan Char, touted as a safer alternative, faces scepticism due to inadequate infrastructure and emergency preparedness, raising concerns about their safety during disasters. Suspected coerced relocations and the possibility of climate-induced forced return further highlight the complexities of mobility decisions amid environmental risks. The secondary impact of environmental factors on migration decisions is evident in their function as a “threat multiplier,” exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities concerning livelihoods and living conditions within the camps, thereby influencing migration decision.

Drawing from extensive data, including 4Mi survey data among 4,064 Rohingya in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand; household surveys with 200 individuals in Cox’s Bazar; and interviews with 36 key stakeholders ranging from governments and international organizations to grassroots initiatives and research entities, this report sheds light on the intersection between climate change and (im)mobility for the Rohingya, aiming to provide evidence for better protection of Rohingya refugees in the context of climate change and conflict.

Section 1 of the report presents an overview of the research methodology and contextual background. Next, Section 2 examines the impacts of climate and environmental factors on the displacement and migration of Rohingya refugees, as well as the role they play in exacerbating the existing vulnerabilities. Section 3 and Section 4 focus on the global and regional mechanisms concerning climate change and refugee protection. The report concludes with approaches towards building climate-resilient and sustainable responses for refugee protection. The summary table below encapsulates key recommendations tailored for different stakeholders.

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