Increasing Frequency of Tornado Outbreaks Raises Concerns and Questions

Tornadoes have been making headlines recently, with reports of multiple tornadoes forming in the same region on the same day. According to the Storm Prediction Center, more than a dozen tornadoes were reported on both Monday and Tuesday this week across the Great Plains and the Midwest. This trend of tornadoes forming in packs has become more common in recent decades.

While the total number of tornadoes in the United States each year has remained relatively consistent, they now occur in more concentrated bursts over fewer days during the year. Research has shown that since 2000, tornadoes are more likely to happen on days with multiple tornadoes rather than on less busy days.

Scientists are hesitant to definitively attribute tornadoes’ clustering behavior to human-caused climate change, as tornadoes are too small and ephemeral to show up in global mathematical models used to study climate change. However, researchers have observed that busy outbreak days are getting busier, with more tornadoes forming in larger outbreaks.

The main ingredients for tornado formation are atmospheric instability and vertical wind shear. As the climate changes, there may be fewer days with both of these ingredients, but when conditions are favorable, tornadoes can be more intense and occur more frequently on fewer days.

Tornadoes are also spreading farther east from the traditional “Tornado Alley” region, impacting areas in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Southeast. Spring is typically the busiest time of year for tornadoes, and so far in 2024, the United States has experienced 639 tornadoes, slightly above average for this time of year.

While there are seasonal and geographic patterns to tornado activity, it’s important to remember that tornadoes can occur anywhere in the United States. As researchers continue to study tornado behavior and its relationship to climate change, it’s essential to stay informed and prepared for severe weather events.
Tornadoes are increasingly forming in clusters, with dozens or even hundreds occurring in the same region on the same day. While the total number of tornadoes in the United States has remained consistent over the years, they now happen in more concentrated bursts over fewer days. This trend has been observed since the 2000s, with fewer tornadoes occurring on less busy days and more happening on days with 20 or more tornadoes.

Scientists are hesitant to definitively attribute tornadoes’ clustering behavior to human-caused climate change, as tornadoes are too small and ephemeral to show up in global climate models. However, researchers have observed that busy outbreak days are getting busier, with more tornadoes occurring in larger outbreaks. Atmospheric conditions that lead to tornadoes, such as atmospheric instability and vertical wind shear, may be changing as the climate warms, leading to more tornadoes on fewer days.

Tornadoes are also spreading farther east from the traditional “Tornado Alley” region, affecting parts of the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Southeast. Spring is typically the busiest time of year for tornadoes, and so far in 2024, the United States has experienced 639 tornadoes, slightly above average for this time of year. While there are seasonal and geographic patterns to tornado activity, tornadoes can occur anywhere in the United States.

Overall, tornadoes are forming in clusters more frequently, with more tornadoes occurring on busy outbreak days. While the link between tornado clustering and climate change is still uncertain, researchers are studying how atmospheric conditions that lead to tornadoes are changing as the climate warms. Tornadoes are spreading beyond traditional regions, affecting areas in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Southeast. Despite seasonal and geographic patterns, tornadoes can occur anywhere in the United States.
Tornadoes are increasingly forming in packs, with hundreds sometimes occurring on the same day in the same region. Outbreaks of tornadoes have become more common in recent decades, with more tornadoes happening on busy days with 20 or more tornadoes. While the trend aligns with rising temperatures, scientists are cautious about definitively linking tornado clustering to human-caused climate change due to the challenges of studying tornadoes on a global scale.

As tornadoes cluster together, busy outbreak days are becoming busier, with more tornadoes occurring in each outbreak. Changes in atmospheric conditions, including atmospheric instability and vertical wind shear, are contributing to the increase in tornadoes on fewer days. Tornadoes are also spreading beyond the traditional Tornado Alley region, affecting areas in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Southeast.

Spring is typically the peak season for tornadoes, with the United States experiencing 639 tornadoes so far in 2024. While this is slightly above average for the time of year, it is significantly fewer than the record-breaking year of 2011. Tornadoes can occur anywhere in the United States, emphasizing the need for preparedness and awareness in all regions.
Tornadoes tend to travel in packs these days, often with a dozen or more forming in the same region on the same day. On the worst days, hundreds can form at once.

More than a dozen tornadoes were reported on both Monday and Tuesday this week across the Great Plains and the Midwest, according to the Storm Prediction Center run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Two weeks ago, on the most active day in April, 105 tornadoes were reported.

While outbreaks like these have always happened, they have become more common in recent decades.

The total number of tornadoes in the United States each year has stayed relatively consistent over the last several decades, but they now happen in more concentrated bursts over fewer days during the year.

In the 1950s through the 1970s, on average about 69 percent of tornadoes in the United States happened on days with fewer than 10 tornadoes, and about 11 percent happened on days with 20 or more tornadoes. These percentages have shifted significantly in recent decades, according to a 2019 study. The researchers found that since 2000, on average only about 49 percent of tornadoes have happened on less busy days and about 29 percent have happened on days with 20 or more tornadoes.

“Now when tornadoes happen, they often happen in an outbreak environment,” said Tyler Fricker, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Louisiana Monroe and one of the authors of the study.

While the timing of this trend lines up with the planet’s rising temperatures, scientists are hesitant to definitively attribute tornadoes’ clustering behavior to human-caused climate change.

“The link between climate change and tornadoes is still pretty tenuous,” Dr. Fricker said. “It’s a really open and difficult question for us.” One difficulty is that tornadoes are too small on a planetary scale, and too ephemeral, to show up in the global mathematical models that scientists use to study climate change.

Researchers can, however, look at patterns in the historical record. As more tornadoes cluster together, busy outbreak days are getting busier, according to Zoe Schroder, an assistant professor of meteorology at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. “When we do get these outbreaks, they’re often larger, meaning that they have more tornadoes in them,” she said.

Scientists can also look at how atmospheric conditions that lead to tornadoes are changing.

There are two main ingredients to tornadoes, said Jana Houser, an associate professor of meteorology at The Ohio State University. The first is atmospheric instability caused by warm, moist air close to the ground meeting colder, dry air above. The second is vertical wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction at different altitudes.

As the climate changes, there might be fewer days with both these ingredients. “But when we have conditions that are favorable, they’re almost supercharged,” Dr. Houser said, leading to more tornadoes on fewer days.

Tornadoes are also spreading farther east from the region people have historically thought of as “Tornado Alley,” the Great Plains states running south to north from Texas to the Dakotas. (Central Canada also experiences tornadoes, but fewer than the United States.)

In the past several weeks, tornadoes have struck not just the Great Plains but also parts of the Midwest, Appalachia and the Southeast.

Spring is typically the busiest time of year for tornadoes. “It’s not completely out of the ordinary for us to have a very active season right now,” Dr. Schroder said.

So far in 2024, the United States has had a total of 639 tornadoes. That’s slightly more than average for this time of year, but far fewer than the worst year on record, 2011, when there had already been 1,287 tornadoes by May 7.

Dr. Houser emphasized, however, that although there are seasonal and geographic patterns, tornadoes “can and do occur anywhere” in the United States.