Climate Change Threatens to Double Wheat Blast Impact by 2050: Study Warns of Devastating Consequences
A new study has raised concerns about the potential impact of climate change on the spread of the devastating fungal plant disease known as wheat blast. The study, published in Nature, warns that the disease currently threatens 6.4 million hectares of cropland and could expand to threaten 13.5 million hectares by 2050.
Wheat blast has the potential to reduce global wheat production by 13%, but the study suggests that other effects of climate change could further exacerbate yield losses. The analysis focused on 86 countries across six continents, highlighting South America and Africa as the most vulnerable regions to wheat blast in the future.
Researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, University of Florida, International Food Policy Research Institute, and Technical University Munich collaborated on the study. They found that up to 75% of wheat acreage in South America and Africa could be at risk by 2050.
The fungus responsible for wheat blast, Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum (MoT), thrives in warm and humid conditions. The disease was first reported in Brazil in 1985 and remained confined to South America until 2016 when it spread to Bangladesh, sparking a global concern.
Climate change-induced temperature increases are believed to have contributed to the wheat blast epidemic in Bangladesh and are expected to drive future occurrences in new countries. The study also revealed that severe wheat blast epidemics in South America and Asia coincided with weather conditions dominated by the El Nino phenomenon.
The study predicts that wheat blast could expand to new regions, affecting countries like Uruguay, Zambia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Congo. Oceania and North America may also see an increase in vulnerable wheat-growing areas due to changing climate conditions.
To mitigate the impact of wheat blast, farmers are advised to shift to less susceptible crops, adjust planting dates, and adopt blast-resistant wheat varieties. CIMMYT has already developed wheat blast-resistant varieties in collaboration with National Agricultural Research Systems partners, which have proven effective in reducing the impact of the disease.
Overall, the study underscores the urgent need for proactive measures to address the threat of wheat blast as climate change continues to reshape agricultural landscapes worldwide.