Troika of COP Presidencies Fails to Define 1.5C-Compatible Climate Plans: What’s Next?
The United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Brazil have made promises to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that are in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. However, there is uncertainty surrounding what these promises actually entail.
The three countries, collectively known as “the Troika,” reiterated their commitment to lead by example and produce NDCs aligned with the 1.5C target by the end of the year. Despite this, they did not provide specific details or numbers on how they plan to achieve this goal. This lack of clarity has left observers concerned about how these nations will balance their climate plans with their continued expansion of fossil fuel activities.
Romain Ioualalen, a global policy manager with Oil Change International, expressed disappointment in the Troika’s lack of leadership and clarity in raising climate ambition during this critical time of climate urgency. The Troika has previously stated that there is no universally accepted definition of what a 1.5C-aligned climate plan should include, leading to concerns of “1.5-washing.”
In response to this ambiguity, a group of leading civil society organizations has outlined “ten essential tests” to determine whether countries’ NDCs meet the 1.5C goal. These tests include commitments to end fossil fuel expansion, detailed targets for various sectors, provisions for climate finance, and measures to protect natural ecosystems.
To limit global temperature rise below 1.5C, experts emphasize the need for countries to peak emissions before 2025, reduce emissions by 60% by 2035, and achieve net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century. This requires a significant shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources.
The upcoming round of updated NDCs, due by next February, is seen as a crucial opportunity to translate the goals set at COP28 into action. Advocates stress the importance of including explicit commitments to phase out coal, oil, and gas exploration, as well as targets for reducing existing production and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.
Brazil, in particular, has faced criticism for its plans to expand oil and gas production despite its pledge to align its NDC with the 1.5C goal. Azerbaijan has also been criticized for weakening its climate targets and plans to increase fossil fuel production.
While energy is a key sector for emissions reduction, experts highlight the need for transformation across all economic sectors, including agriculture, industry, and transport. Specific emissions reduction targets for each sector can guide policy-making and attract investments.
However, there are concerns about the potential for “creative accounting” in meeting NDC targets, particularly regarding the reliance on carbon sinks like forests. Countries must outline clear and transparent plans to achieve their targets without resorting to misleading tactics.
Overall, there is skepticism about whether countries will deliver the level of ambition needed to meet the 1.5C goal. The task for COP30 host Brazil next year will be to encourage countries to enhance their climate plans and work towards more ambitious targets.