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A new tool to assist decision-makers in navigating potential futures of the Colorado River

Navigating the Uncertain Future of the Colorado River: A New Tool for Climate Adaptation

The Colorado River is a vital source of water in the Western United States, providing drinking water for homes and irrigation for farms in seven states, but the basin is under increasing pressure from climate change and drought. A new computational tool developed by a research team, led by Penn State scientists, may help the region adapt to a complex and uncertain future.

Their tool, the Framework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC), can help decision-makers explore many plausible futures and identify consequential scenario storylines — or descriptions of what critical futures might look like — to help planners better address the uncertainties and impacts presented by climate change. They reported their findings on Sept. 19 in the journal Earth’s Future.

Antonia Hadjimichael, assistant professor in the Department of Geosciences at Penn State and lead author of the study, explained that scenario planning is crucial for preparing for the future, as it considers different possibilities based on available science and stakeholder input. This process recognizes the uncertainties surrounding climate and water needs, requiring planners to consider various scenarios, such as high-warming or low-warming possibilities.

The traditional scenario planning approaches often focus on a limited number of scenarios, potentially overlooking the complexity of all factors involved. On the other hand, exploratory modeling, which simulates numerous possible futures, may not be practical for decision-makers. The FRNSIC tool aims to bridge these approaches by exploring a wide range of future conditions and identifying relevant and locally meaningful storylines.

Hadjimichael emphasized the importance of considering the diverse perspectives of stakeholders in the Colorado River basin, where decision-makers must balance water supply for growing populations and farmers while adhering to legal agreements on water usage. The FRNSIC tool provides a nuanced understanding of potential impacts, allowing policymakers to explore different scenarios and assess the consequences of various interventions.

The research team, which includes experts from Cornell University, the University of Virginia, and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, received support from the U.S. Department of Energy for their work in MultiSector Dynamics. Their innovative approach to scenario planning offers a valuable tool for addressing the challenges posed by climate change and drought in the Colorado River basin, ultimately helping stakeholders make informed decisions for a sustainable future.

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