“Revolutionizing Crop Yield Estimates: A New Approach to Feed the World”
An international team of agronomists is urging for a new approach to estimate crop yield potential and gaps in order to address the growing food demand worldwide. The study, published in the journal Nature Food on April 8, involved researchers from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, including Patricio Grassini, Sunkist Distinguished Professor of Agronomy, and other experts from different institutions.
The researchers emphasized the importance of accurate estimates that consider both yield potential, influenced by weather and soil conditions, and yield gaps, which indicate the difference between potential and actual yields on farms. These estimates are crucial for making informed decisions on agricultural research and development investments.
The current statistical models used in the United States tend to rely on best-case scenarios, which may not accurately represent the average climate and soil conditions across different regions. This approach could lead to overestimation of production potential in some areas. On the other hand, in regions like Africa, where farmers have limited access to inputs, the models may underestimate crop yield potential.
The study compared different statistical models with a “bottom-up” spatial scaling approach based on robust crop modeling and local weather and soil data. The researchers found that the bottom-up approach, which incorporates long-term data and regional variations, was more accurate in estimating yield potential and yield gaps for major U.S. rainfed crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat.
The team’s conclusions challenge the conventional statistical methods widely used in estimating crop yields and gaps. They believe that a more rigorous approach is needed to ensure the accuracy of the information used to inform policy and investments in agriculture.
The recommended approach by the team aims to better identify regions with the most potential to increase crop production, guiding agricultural research and development programs effectively. The researchers hope that their findings will lead to a more accurate and validated approach in estimating crop yield potential and gaps.
Overall, the study highlights the importance of using sound and validated information to address the global challenge of feeding a growing population with limited agricultural resources. The team’s call for a new approach to estimate crop yield potential and gaps could have significant implications for future agricultural planning and development efforts.