“El Nino Impact: WMO Reports Record Strength Climate Pattern for 2024”
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has recently reported that El Nino is currently one of the five strongest climate patterns on record. Despite a weakening trend, the impact of the current El Nino climate is predicted to persist for the next few months, affecting global climate patterns.
According to the latest update from WMO, there is a 60 percent likelihood of El Nino continuing from March to May, with an 80 percent chance of neutral conditions prevailing from April to June. This means that above-normal temperatures are expected across most land areas between March and May, driven by the ongoing El Nino conditions. These conditions have already led to record temperatures and extreme weather events globally, with 2023 being marked as the warmest year on record.
In January, the global mean temperature surpassed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for the first time for an entire year, as specified in the Paris Agreement, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. While this breach indicates long-term warming trends, the potential development of La Nina later in the year remains uncertain.
Experts monitoring India’s climate patterns suggest that if La Nina conditions emerge between June and August, it could result in improved monsoon rains compared to 2023.
El Nino is characterized by periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically recurring every two to seven years and lasting nine to twelve months. Its effects include increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and southern US, along with dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa.
The impact of El Nino on global climate is expected to be most significant in 2024, given its development since June 2023. Although weaker than past events, the current El Nino peaked at approximately 2.0 degrees Celsius above average sea-surface temperatures for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Nino’s influence extends beyond seasonal climate patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events. The WMO emphasizes the importance of accurate seasonal forecasts during El Nino and La Nina events, aiding decision-making and preparedness efforts across various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and public health.