Study Finds Flooding from Sea-Level Rise Could Displace Millions of Americans by 2100

Climate change is a pressing issue that is already impacting millions of people around the world. One of the most concerning consequences of climate change is sea-level rise, which could potentially displace millions of people living in coastal areas. A recent study published in the journal PLOS ONE modeled how 6 feet of sea-level rise could affect the population of every county in the US by 2100.

The study used projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which anticipates 6 feet of sea-level rise by 2100 under severe circumstances. The researchers then modeled where people along the coasts would migrate if their homes became permanently flooded. The results of the study showed that almost every county in the US can expect to take in migrants due to sea-level rise, with more than a third of the US population potentially living in counties where the number of migrants had doubled.

The researchers programmed their model to make predictions based on historic migration flows, including population shifts among counties affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The model assumes that migrants would not stray too far from their coastal cities and would likely choose inland areas nearby but relatively safe from flooding. However, people may also be willing to move a bit farther away to live in a larger city.

The study identified 11 cities that are expected to become particularly popular among climate migrants, all located along the Sunbelt. These cities include Sacramento, California; Phoenix, Arizona; Las Vegas, Nevada; San Antonio, Texas; Houston, Texas; Dallas, Texas; Austin, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Orlando, Florida; Charlotte, North Carolina; and Raleigh, North Carolina. Urban areas in the southeast, Texas cities, and Florida residents are predicted to gravitate towards these cities due to their proximity to flood-prone areas.

While the influx of migrants may put pressure on cities in terms of housing and job competition, it could also have positive economic impacts. Studies have shown that an influx of migrants can reduce unemployment rates and boost local GDP. Cities like Orlando, Sacramento, Phoenix, and Las Vegas, which have weaker economies based on unemployment numbers, job-growth rates, GDP growth, per capita GDP, and average weekly wages, could potentially benefit from an influx of climate migrants.

Overall, the study highlights the need for further research on the socio-economic impacts of climate-driven migration. As sea levels continue to rise, it is crucial to understand how this will affect populations and how cities can prepare to accommodate and support climate migrants in the future.