“New Study Shows Global Warming Will Accelerate Permafrost Thawing and Intensify Wildfires in Arctic Regions”
The study, published in the journal Nature Communications by an international team of climate scientists and permafrost experts, reveals alarming findings about the impact of global warming on permafrost thawing and wildfires in the Subarctic and Arctic regions of northern Canada and Siberia.
Recent observational trends have shown that warm and dry conditions have already intensified wildfires in the Arctic region. To understand how future anthropogenic warming will affect wildfire occurrences, it is crucial to consider the role of accelerated permafrost thawing, which significantly influences soil water content – a key factor in wildfire burning. Previous climate models did not fully account for the interaction between global warming, permafrost thawing, soil water, and fires.
The new study utilized permafrost and wildfire data from the Community Earth System Model, one of the most comprehensive earth system models available. This model is the first of its kind to capture the coupling between soil water, permafrost, and wildfires in an integrated manner. By conducting an ensemble of 50 simulations covering the period from 1850-2100 CE (SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario), the researchers were able to separate the anthropogenic effect of greenhouse gas emissions from natural climate variations.
The results of the study indicate that by the mid to late 21st century, anthropogenic permafrost thawing in the Subarctic and Arctic regions will be extensive, leading to a sudden drop in soil moisture, surface warming, and atmospheric drying. Dr. In-Won Kim, lead author of the study, warns that these conditions will intensify wildfires, with model simulations showing a rapid transition from minimal fires to intense fires within a few years.
Furthermore, the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is expected to enhance vegetation biomass in high latitude areas, providing additional fuel for wildfires. Associate Prof. Hanna Lee emphasizes the need to improve small-scale hydrological processes in earth system models using extended observational datasets to better simulate the future degradation of permafrost landscapes.
Prof. Axel Timmermann highlights the importance of integrating fire emissions and atmospheric processes into earth system models to fully understand the impact of wildfires on climate and permafrost thawing processes in the Arctic. The study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive measures to mitigate the escalating risks posed by accelerated permafrost thawing and intensifying wildfires in the Subarctic and Arctic regions.