Climate’s Impact on Earthquakes: A New Connection Discovered by MIT Scientists

The connection between climate and earthquakes may not be something that immediately comes to mind when thinking about seismic activity. However, a recent study by MIT scientists has shed light on how certain weather events, such as heavy snowfall and rain, can actually contribute to triggering earthquakes.

In a study published in Science Advances, researchers found that episodes of intense precipitation in northern Japan likely played a role in a swarm of earthquakes that occurred over the past several years. This discovery marks the first time that climate conditions have been directly linked to the initiation of earthquakes.

Lead author William Frank, an assistant professor in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, explains that the stress state underground can be impacted by environmental loading at the surface, such as snowfall and rainfall. The timing of these precipitation events was found to be closely correlated with the onset of the earthquake swarm in Japan’s Noto Peninsula.

The study focused on analyzing seismic activity in the region and discovered that changes in underground pressure, influenced by seasonal patterns of precipitation, were synchronized with the earthquakes. This new connection between climate and earthquakes may have implications beyond Japan and could potentially play a role in seismic activity in other parts of the world.

Looking ahead, the researchers predict that with global warming leading to more extreme precipitation events, the influence of climate on earthquakes could become more pronounced. Changes in the distribution of water in the atmosphere, oceans, and continents could impact the Earth’s crust and potentially lead to an increase in seismic activity.

While tectonic plate movements and subsurface faults remain the primary triggers of earthquakes, this study highlights the importance of considering secondary factors, such as climate, in understanding when and how earthquakes occur. By exploring these additional influences, scientists can gain a more comprehensive understanding of seismic activity and better predict and prepare for future earthquakes.

The research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation, underscoring the significance of studying the complex interactions between climate and seismic events. As our climate continues to change, it is crucial to continue investigating how environmental factors may impact the Earth’s crust and potentially contribute to the occurrence of earthquakes.
Scientists have traditionally attributed earthquakes to the collision of tectonic plates and the movement of subsurface faults and fissures. However, a recent study by MIT researchers suggests that certain weather events, such as heavy snowfall and rain, may also contribute to triggering earthquakes. The study focused on a series of ongoing earthquakes in Japan’s Noto Peninsula and found that seismic activity in the region is synchronized with changes in underground pressure influenced by seasonal patterns of snowfall and precipitation. The researchers believe that this connection between quakes and climate may not be unique to Japan and could impact other parts of the world as well. They predict that with global warming, the climate’s influence on earthquakes could become more pronounced.

The study analyzed seismic data from the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s earthquake catalog and seismic measurements taken by monitoring stations in the Noto Peninsula over an 11-year period. The researchers observed a pattern of seismic velocity changes beneath the Noto Peninsula that appeared to be synchronized with the seasons, particularly in 2020 when the earthquake swarm began. They hypothesized that environmental changes from season to season, such as precipitation, could influence the pore fluid pressure in the Earth’s cracks and fissures, affecting seismic wave travel speed.

Using a hydromechanical model, the researchers simulated the pore pressure beneath the Noto Peninsula in response to seasonal changes in precipitation. They found that the model of excess pore pressure aligned well with the observed seismic velocity changes, especially when considering snowfall data and extreme snowfall events. The researchers concluded that heavy snowfall and intense precipitation events could be linked to earthquake activity in the region.

While plate tectonics remain the primary trigger for earthquakes, the study suggests that climate conditions can also impact the timing and intensity of seismic events. The researchers emphasize the need to explore secondary factors, such as climate, that could influence earthquake occurrence. They believe that as the climate changes, with more extreme precipitation events expected, the Earth’s crust loading will be altered, potentially leading to more earthquakes. This research sheds light on the complex relationship between climate and seismic activity and highlights the importance of considering environmental factors in earthquake studies.