“AI Predicts Mass Migration Inland Due to Sea-Level Rise in the U.S.: How Will Cities Prepare?”
A new study using artificial intelligence to map potential migration patterns in the U.S. due to sea-level rise reveals that around 13 million Americans could be forced to move by the end of the century if the sea level rises six feet. This mass migration is expected to impact not only coastal regions but also inland areas, particularly cities like Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas in the Midwest.
Lead author Caleb Robinson, a doctoral scholar at Georgia Tech currently conducting research at USC, highlights the importance of considering the indirect effects of sea-level rise through migration. The study utilized data from previous climate-related events such as Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita to train a machine-learning model to predict where people may relocate in the face of climate change-induced displacement.
While previous studies have touched on climate migration, this new research aims to capture the nuances of forced migration as opposed to typical relocation patterns. Bistra Dilkina, a computer science professor at USC and co-author of the paper, emphasizes the need to understand the unique dynamics of migration in response to climate disasters.
The study also points out that climate-induced migration is not limited to sea-level rise, as wildfires, droughts, and other climate-related events can also drive people to move. Cities like Houston, which may see an influx of climate migrants according to the study, have already experienced significant damage from extreme weather events like Hurricane Harvey.
The framework developed in this research can be applied to anticipate and prepare for future climate-induced migration, helping cities plan for growing populations and potential infrastructure changes. By making their code open-source, the researchers aim to facilitate ongoing updates and improvements to the models as new data becomes available.
As natural disasters become more frequent and severe, the need for proactive planning and adaptation strategies is becoming increasingly urgent. Cities that are proactive in preparing for climate migration, such as Buffalo, New York, which has been dubbed a “climate refuge” city, may be better positioned to harness the potential benefits of incoming migrants.
Overall, this study sheds light on the complex and far-reaching impacts of climate change on human populations, underscoring the importance of data-driven research and proactive planning to address the challenges of climate-induced migration.