“Uncovering the Climate Disaster Caused by the War in Ukraine: A Comprehensive Report”
The war in Ukraine has not only caused immense human suffering but has also led to a significant climate disaster, according to a new report. A team of carbon accounting experts evaluated the climate impact of the conflict and found that a total of 120 million metric tons of planet-heating pollution can be attributed to the first year of the war, which started in February 2022. This amount is equivalent to the annual emissions of Belgium or those produced by nearly 27 million gas-powered cars on the road for a year.
The report, titled “Climate Damage Caused by Russia’s War in Ukraine,” highlights the comprehensive scale at which the emissions of the war have been mapped for the first time. Data from various sources, including satellites, scientific papers, expert interviews, industry reports, and open-source intelligence, was used to analyze the climate impact of the pollution produced directly from warfare, as well as the consequences of the war such as fires, destruction of infrastructure, and changes to the European energy mix.
The report found that nearly 22 million metric tons of planet-heating pollution came directly from warfare, accounting for almost 20% of the total emissions attributable to the conflict. The number of fires caused by shelling, bombing, and explosions increased significantly during the first year of the war, leading to the release of nearly 18 million metric tons of pollution.
The biggest climate impact, however, is expected to come from the post-war reconstruction of damaged and destroyed buildings and infrastructure. Rebuilding will require vast amounts of materials such as cement and concrete, which produce high levels of carbon pollution. Additionally, the destruction of energy infrastructure during the conflict has pushed up the estimated planet-heating pollution to be produced during reconstruction.
The report also looked at impacts outside of Ukraine, including the methane pollution released after the sabotage of the Russian gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2. Changes to Europe’s energy mix following the conflict led to both an increase in coal burning and a faster transition to renewables.
The report authors emphasized the importance of understanding the long-term climate impacts of the conflict and the need to include warfare in countries’ climate reporting and transition to net-zero emissions. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the crucial impact of warfare on the world’s ability to tackle climate change, and it is a problem that cannot be ignored.
Global commitments to keep warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels are already slipping out of reach, and the reconstruction of Ukraine following a just peace must prioritize green initiatives. The war in Ukraine has underscored the importance of understanding the climate impact of warfare and the urgent need to address it.