Revolutionizing Urban Development: FUTURES 3.0 Model for Climate-Aware Planning and Adaptation

Researchers have developed a new version of the FUTURES land change model, known as FUTURES 3.0, which integrates probabilistic projections of urban development with simulations of human migration and adaptation measures in response to flood hazards from climate change. This model framework, called FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES), is designed to address the ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization at a regional scale.

FUTURES 3.0 consists of several submodels that work together to predict urban development and adaptation measures in response to flood hazards. The model considers factors such as local site suitability for land change, per capita land consumption, spatial patterns of urbanization, and adaptive capacity to flooding due to climate change. The CLIMATE FORCING submodel within FUTURES 3.0 estimates the probability of flood damage at developed locations and predicts likely adaptation responses, such as retreat, protect and armor, or stay trapped.

The model is based on data sources such as flood hazard conditions from the First Street Foundation and land cover data from the USGS National Land Cover Database. By combining these datasets and using sophisticated modeling techniques, FUTURES 3.0 can simulate hundreds of scenarios of flood responses at yearly time steps, providing insights into where new development will occur and where adaptation interventions are more likely to be needed.

The flexibility of FUTURES 3.0 allows for the creation of different scenarios and alteration of flood response functions to represent community preferences or policy influences. Researchers have developed various response scenarios, including managed retreat, resist, polarized population, and trapped population, to demonstrate how different factors can influence estimates of exposed development.

Overall, FUTURES 3.0 provides a comprehensive and detailed framework for understanding the complex interactions between urban development, human migration, and adaptation to flood hazards in the face of climate change. The model’s ability to probabilistically predict flood responses and simulate different scenarios makes it a valuable tool for decision-makers and researchers studying the impacts of urbanization and climate change on vulnerable communities.