Projected Increase in Cardiovascular Deaths Due to Extreme Heat
Climate change is a pressing issue that is impacting various aspects of our lives, including our health. A recent study conducted by a team of researchers led by Dr. Sameed Khatana at the University of Pennsylvania has shed light on the potential increase in cardiovascular deaths due to extreme heat in the United States in the coming decades.
The researchers analyzed data from 2008 to 2019 and compared deaths from cardiovascular disease to the number of summer days with a heat index of at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit. By using models of future greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic conditions, they projected the number of extreme heat days and county populations during the period of 2036-2065. The study presented two scenarios – a middle-of-the-road scenario with moderate population growth and climate policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and a worst-case scenario with rapid population growth and unchecked emissions.
The findings, published in Circulation, revealed that more than 12 million adults in the U.S. died from cardiovascular disease during the summer months of the studied period, with an average of 1,651 deaths associated with extreme heat each year. Under the middle-of-the-road scenario, the researchers estimated that this number would more than double by mid-century, reaching over 4,300 deaths. In the worst-case scenario, the number of excess deaths would surpass 5,500.
The study also highlighted the disproportionate impact of extreme heat on certain demographic groups. Excess deaths were projected to increase significantly more for people aged 65 and older compared to younger adults, especially under the middle-of-the-road scenario. Additionally, non-Hispanic Black adults were expected to experience a higher increase in excess deaths compared to non-Hispanic White adults.
Dr. Khatana emphasized the importance of addressing the health burdens associated with extreme heat, as they are expected to continue growing in the coming decades. He also pointed out that the unequal impact of extreme heat on different populations could exacerbate existing health disparities and emphasized the need for interventions to prevent heat-related illnesses.
The study was funded by the NIH’s National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) and the American Heart Association, underscoring the significance of research in understanding and addressing the health implications of climate change. As we continue to witness the effects of global warming, it is crucial to prioritize public health interventions to protect vulnerable populations from the adverse impacts of extreme heat.