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El Niño Departs, Leaving Potential for La Niña to Bring Drought Conditions to California

“From El Niño to La Niña: What California Can Expect Next”

After a year of dominance, El Niño’s wrath has come to an end — but its climate-churning counterpart, La Niña, is hot on its heels and could signal a return to dryness for California.

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has been actively disrupting global temperatures and precipitation patterns since its arrival last summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the El Niño event contributed to record-high global ocean temperatures, extreme heat stress to coral reefs, drought in the Amazon and Central America, and record-setting atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast.

Now, El Niño has transitioned into a neutral pattern, offering a brief respite before the potential onset of La Niña. NOAA stated that there is a 65% chance that La Niña will develop between July and September and persist into the Northern Hemisphere’s winter, with an 85% chance of it being in place between November and January.

La Niña is often associated with cooler, drier conditions along the West Coast, particularly in Southern California. The state experienced its three driest years on record during the last La Niña event from 2020 to 2022, leading to devastating drought conditions and water restrictions.

Bill Patzert, a retired climatologist, highlighted that Southern California has seen 25 La Niña years since 1950, with 19 of them being drier than normal. While La Niña typically predicts a drier winter, it is not a guarantee, and preparations are underway for both wet and dry conditions in California.

State water managers are considering a state climate bond to provide financial assistance for extreme weather events. Governor Gavin Newsom’s strategy for a hotter, drier future is also being implemented to address the impacts of climate change.

Despite the potential cooling effect of La Niña on global temperatures, long-term warming trends driven by climate change could still result in 2024 being among the hottest years on record. La Niña is also linked to an active Atlantic hurricane season, with impacts on U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies expected to emerge in fall or winter.

NOAA’s winter outlook predicts warmer and drier conditions across the southern U.S., including Southern California, with wetter weather in parts of the Midwest and Northwest. The strength of the upcoming La Niña event is still uncertain, with a wide range of possible outcomes.

Overall, La Niña’s impacts are complex and influenced by various factors, including global warming. As climate change continues to affect weather patterns, the unpredictability of La Niña underscores the importance of preparedness and adaptation to extreme conditions.

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